Modeling Heterogeneity in the Long-Term Trajectories of Individuals’ Well-Being

Journal article

Very little is known about how long-term well-being trajectories vary across populations. Using data from 45,160 adults in New Zealand (62% women, Mage = 41 years) surveyed annually over 13 years, we identified latent trajectories for belongingness, social support, self-esteem, and life satisfaction. Through a group-based trajectory modeling approach, we found five trajectory groups: low (3%–5%), moderate (11%–17%), moderate-high (29%–32%), high (35%–45%), and very high (11%–20%) well-being. While most individuals showed minimal changes, those with initially low well-being experienced the greatest change, in the direction of decreasing well-being over time. Individuals with higher education were more likely to follow higher well-being trajectories. Similarly, women were more likely to follow higher well-being trajectories, except for self-esteem, where men tended to score higher over time. Lastly, age and ethnicity demonstrated more complex patterns. These findings highlight the importance of acknowledging long-term heterogeneity in well-being trajectories and emphasize the need for targeted preventive mental health interventions, particularly for individuals who begin with lower well-being levels.

Authors: Wollast, R; Phillips, JB; Bracegirdle, C; Spiegler, O; Sibley, CG

• Publication status: Published
• Peer review status: Peer reviewed
• Publisher: SAGE Publications
• Journal: Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin
• Volume: 52
• Issue: 7
• Pages: 2045-2064
• Publication date: 2025-04-29
• Acceptance date: 2025-03-12
• DOI: 10.1177/01461672251331654
• EISSN: 1552-7433
• ISSN: 0146-1672
• Language: English
• Keywords: well-being; self-esteem; social support; belongingness; life satisfaction