A comparative climate-resilient energy design: Wildfire Resilient Load Forecasting Model using multi-factor deep learning methods

Journal article

Power grid damage and blackouts are increasing with climate change. Load forecasting methods that integrate climate resilience are therefore essential to facilitate timely and accurate network reconfiguration during periods of extreme stress. Our paper proposes a generalised Wildfire Resilient Load Forecasting Model (WRLFM) to predict electricity load based on operational data of a Distribution Network (DN) in Australia during wildfire seasons in 2015–2020. We demonstrate that load forecasting during wildfire seasons is more challenging than during non-wildfire seasons, motivating an imperative need to improve forecast performance during wildfire seasons. To develop the robust WRLFM, comprehensive comparative analyses were conducted to determine proper Machine Learning (ML) forecast structures and methods for incorporating multiple factors. Bi-directional Gated Recurrent Unit (Bi-GRU) and Vision Transformer (ViT) were selected as they performed the best among all 13 recently trending ML methods. Multi-factors were incorporated to contribute to forecast performance, including input sequence structures, calendar information, flexible correlation-based temperature conditions, and categorical Fire Weather Index (FWI). High-resolution categorical FWI was used to build a forecasting model with climate resilience for the first time, significantly enhancing the average stability of forecast performances by 42%. A sensitivity analysis compared data set patterns and model performances during wildfire and non-wildfire seasons. The improvement rate of load forecasting performance during wildfire seasons was more than two times greater than in non-wildfire seasons. This indicates the significance and effectiveness of applying the WRLFM to improve forecast accuracy under extreme weather risks. Overall, the WRLFM reduces the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of the forecast by 14.37% and 20.86% for Bi-GRU and ViT-based models, respectively, achieving an average forecast MAPE of around 3%.

Authors: Yang, W; Sparrow, SN; Wallom, DCH

• Publication status: Published
• Peer review status: Peer reviewed
• Publisher: Elsevier
• Journal: Applied Energy
• Volume: 368
• Article number: 123365
• Publication date: 2024-05-20
• Acceptance date: 2024-04-30
• DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2024.123365
• EISSN: 1872-9118
• ISSN: 0306-2619
• Language: English
• Keywords: extreme weather; distribution network; climate resilience; load forecast; deep learning