Journal article
Predicting violent reoffending in individuals released from prison in a lower-middle-income country: A validation of OxRec in Tajikistan
- Abstract:
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Background: Although around 70% of the world's prison population live in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), risk assessment tools for criminal recidivism have been developed and validated in high-income countries (HICs). Validating such tools in LMIC settings is important for the risk management of people released from prison, development of evidence-based intervention programmes, and effective allocation of limited resources.
Methods: We aimed to externally validate a scalable risk assessment tool, the Oxford Risk of Recidivism (OxRec) tool, which was developed in Sweden, using data from a cohort of people released from prisons in Tajikistan. Data were collected from interviews (for predictors) and criminal records (for some predictors and main outcomes). Individuals were first interviewed in prison and then followed up over a 1-year period for post-release violent reoffending outcomes. We assessed the predictive performance of OxRec by testing discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve; AUC) and calibration (calibration statistics and plots). In addition, we calculated sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV) for different predetermined risk thresholds.
Results: The cohort included 970 individuals released from prison. During the 12-month follow-up, 144 (15%) were reincarcerated for violent crimes. The original model performed well. The discriminative ability of OxRec Tajikistan was good (AUC = 0.70; 95% CI 0.66–0.75). The calibration plot suggested an underestimation of observed risk probabilities. However, after recalibration, model performance was improved (Brier score = 0.12; calibration in the large was 1.09). At a selected risk threshold of 15%, the tool had a sensitivity of 60%, specificity of 65%, PPV 23% and NPV 90%. In addition, OxRec was feasible to use, despite challenges to risk prediction in LMICs.
Conclusion: In an external validation in a LMIC, the OxRec tool demonstrated good performance in multiple measures. OxRec could be used in Tajikistan to help prioritize interventions for people who are at high-risk of violent reoffending after incarceration and screen out others who are at lower risk of violent reoffending. The use of validated risk assessment tools in LMICs could improve risk stratification and inform the development of future interventions tailored at modifiable risk factors for recidivism, such as substance use and mental health problems.
- Publication status:
- Published
- Peer review status:
- Peer reviewed
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(Preview, Version of record, 708.1KB, Terms of use)
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- Publisher copy:
- 10.3389/fpsyt.2022.805141
Authors
- Publisher:
- Frontiers Media
- Journal:
- Frontiers in Psychiatry More from this journal
- Volume:
- 13
- Article number:
- 805141
- Publication date:
- 2022-04-25
- Acceptance date:
- 2022-03-22
- DOI:
- EISSN:
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1664-0640
- Language:
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English
- Keywords:
- Pubs id:
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1253621
- Local pid:
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pubs:1253621
- Deposit date:
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2022-04-26
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- Copyright holder:
- Beaudry et al
- Copyright date:
- 2022
- Rights statement:
- © 2022 Beaudry, Yu, Alaei, Alaei and Fazel. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) and the copyright owner(s) are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
- Licence:
- CC Attribution (CC BY)
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