Range-wide assessment of habitat suitability for jaguars using multiscale species distribution modelling

Journal article

Jaguars (Panthera onca) are highly sensitive to persecution, habitat loss, and fragmentation, making the identification of suitable habitat critical for conservation planning. Using GPS telemetry data from 172 individuals across eight countries – the largest jaguar dataset to date – we developed multiscale Resource Selection Functions (RSFs) incorporating 15 environmental covariates to model habitat suitability across the species’ historic range. Jaguars selected productive habitats near water and strongly avoided human-modified landscapes, including areas with high human population density and livestock presence. The resulting habitat suitability surface showed strong predictive performance (AUC = 0.88; Boyce Index = 0.91) and correlated with known density estimates and distribution models. Jaguar Conservation Units (JCUs) and Protected Areas (PAs) contained 68.7% and 53.9% of predicted suitable habitat, respectively, while occupying only a third of the range. Non-designated lands, though comprising just 4% of the range, held nearly 10% of total suitability. The Amazon and Mayan Forests were identified as core strongholds, while ecoregion-based modelling revealed additional areas of high suitability in the Pantanal, Gran Chaco, Cerrado, and coastal Mexico. While Brazil encompassed the largest extent of highly suitable habitat, countries such as Paraguay, Argentina, and the United States gained conservation relevance under the ecoregion-stratified scenario.

Authors: Alvarenga, GC; Sartor, CC; Cushman, SA; Zimmermann, A; Srbek-Araujo, AC

• Publication status: Published
• Peer review status: Peer reviewed
• Publisher: Nature Research
• Journal: Scientific Reports
• Volume: 16
• Issue: 1
• Article number: 759
• Publication date: 2025-12-24
• Acceptance date: 2025-11-25
• DOI: 10.1038/s41598-025-30512-5
• EISSN: 2045-2322
• ISSN: 2045-2322
• Language: English
• Keywords: Habitat suitability; Jaguar conservation units; Protected areas; Panthera onca; Multiscale modelling; Indigenous lands