Predictable atmospheric circulation driver of Eurasian winter temperatures

Journal article

In contrast to global warming trends, much of Eurasia experienced a winter cooling trend over 1990–2014. Some studies have proposed a causal link between this regional cooling, particularly strong over Siberia, to coincident reductions in Arctic sea-ice extent. However, free-running historical climate models overwhelmingly simulate a forced Eurasian warming signal, leading other studies to suggest that internal variability explains the observed cooling. Here, we use retrospective seasonal climate predictions to highlight a robust dynamical link between Siberian cooling and upstream north-east Atlantic atmospheric circulation changes. Examining the interannual predictability of these circulation patterns, we find spuriously weak but skilful model signals. When these weak dynamical signals are corrected, stronger low-frequency variability in downstream Siberian temperature also emerges, with half of the observed 1990–2014 cooling simulated. Our results suggest that Eurasian decadal climate variability is at least partly driven by a predictable atmospheric circulation response to slowly evolving boundary conditions.

Authors: Dunstone, NJ; Li, C; Smith, DM; Hardiman, SC; Hermanson, L

• Publication status: Published
• Peer review status: Peer reviewed
• Publisher: Nature Research
• Journal: npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
• Volume: 9
• Issue: 1
• Article number: 28
• Publication date: 2026-01-28
• Acceptance date: 2025-12-07
• DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-01297-1
• EISSN: 2397-3722
• ISSN: 2397-3722
• Language: English
• Keywords: Predictability; Atmospheric circulation; Climate model; General Circulation Model; Circulation (fluid dynamics); Arctic; Climate change; Climate system