Attributing precipitation, wind and socioeconomic exposure in Hurricane Melissa (2025)

Journal article

Hurricane Melissa reached Category 5 intensity in the Caribbean Sea in late October 2025, becoming the strongest hurricane on record to make landfall in Jamaica. Here, we assess the influence of anthropogenic climate change and natural variability on the hurricane’s precipitation and wind hazards. We apply the ClimaMeter analogue-based attribution protocol to ERA5 reanalysis, complemented by a track-based constraining approach. We find that events similar to Melissa are up to 15 mm d−1 wetter and are associated with winds up to 10 km h−1 stronger in today’s climate compared with a counterfactual past. Both correspond to an ∼10 % intensification of the hazards. These results indicate that human-driven climate change amplified Melissa’s precipitation and strengthened its large-scale wind environment. At the same time, natural variability likely modulated the Hurricane’s trajectory and development. We further integrate the meteorological attribution with an exposure analysis, combining hazards with population and gross domestic product per capita at purchasing power parity. We find that almost 5 million people and USD 35 billion in economic assets were located in areas where Melissa’s precipitation and wind hazards were intensified by ongoing climate change. This underscores the growing contribution of anthropogenic climate change to climate risk amplification.

Authors: Faranda, D; Messori, G; Alvarez-Castro, C; Bourdin, S

• Publication status: Published
• Peer review status: Peer reviewed
• Publisher: IOP Publishing
• Journal: Environmental Research Letters
• Volume: 21
• Issue: 8
• Pages: 084001
• Article number: 084001
• Publication date: 2026-04-15
• Acceptance date: 2026-03-31
• DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ae5992
• EISSN: 1748-9326
• ISSN: 1748-9326
• Language: English
• Keywords: attribution; vulnerability and exposure; tropical cyclones; climate extremes