Confidence and certainty in medical diagnoses within acute healthcare: a scoping review

Journal article : Review

Objective Overconfidence is an important source of medical error. This review analyses experimental studies of confidence in medical diagnosis to identify factors affecting clinicians’ confidence in their diagnoses, and how confidence impacts patient care.
Method A scoping review of medical and psychological literature was conducted. Articles were categorised according to methodology and clinical speciality. Findings were analysed thematically. Our review methodology adheres to the JBI’s PRISMA-ScR Checklist for Scoping Reviews.
Data Sources We searched SCOPUS, MEDLINE, PsycINFO and Global Health. We then performed citation tracking within these papers' references to identify additional articles.
Eligibility criteria Papers were included if they reported quantitative results from an empirical study in which participants reported their confidence or certainty during a diagnostic decision. Studies comprised several medical subdisciplines.
Results 77 articles met the inclusion criteria. Across these articles, confidence was not found to be well-calibrated to true diagnostic accuracy regardless of clinician experience. We organised articles under two main themes: the determinants of confidence and the uses of confidence during the patient’s care pathway. Confidence is found to be affected by several factors including case complexity, early diagnostic differentials, and the healthcare environment. Factors that affect confidence, but not accuracy, demonstrate how the two can become decoupled, resulting in overconfidence/underconfidence. Confidence is found to affect patient testing, medication administration and referral rates, among other clinical actions.
Conclusions Improving the calibration of confidence should be a priority for medical education and clinical practice (e.g., via decision aids). We propose a theoretical model of factors that affect diagnostic confidence/certainty. Such a model can inform future work on how appropriate diagnostic confidence can be prompted and communicated amongst clinicians.

Authors: Aiyer, S; Higham, H; Yeung, N

• Publication status: Published
• Peer review status: Peer reviewed
• Publisher: BMJ Publishing Group
• Journal: BMJ Quality and Safety
• Volume: 35
• Issue: 3
• Pages: 188-200
• Publication date: 2025-12-03
• Acceptance date: 2025-11-02
• DOI: 10.1136/bmjqs-2024-017997
• EISSN: 2044-5423
• ISSN: 2044-5415
• Language: English
• Subtype: Review