Forecast attribution reveals enhanced heat mortality from climate change in British Columbia heatwave

Journal article

In 2021, Canada experienced one of the most extreme heatwaves ever seen anywhere on the globe. We use a weather forecast model to attribute health impacts to climate change. We simulate the heatwave as a present-day forecast, a preindustrial-counterfactual scenario, and a future-counterfactual scenario. Despite the extremeness of the event, our analysis shows that, under current climate conditions, we could have still seen up to 30% more heat-related deaths than the number observed. We show that between 11 and 15% of the observed human mortality was attributable to climate change during this event, depending on the conditioning of the atmospheric circulation. We also show that, had "the same event" occurred in the future, the mortality toll is nonlinear compared with the warming trend, and so the future attribution would be even more extreme, 16 to 31%. We argue that this method gives particularly reliable impact attribution results and is therefore strongly defensible in decision-making and legal settings.

Authors: Shapland, CY; Lo, YTE; Leach, NJ; Lavigne, É; Tilling, K

• Publication status: Published
• Peer review status: Peer reviewed
• Publisher: American Association for the Advancement of Science
• Journal: Science Advances
• Volume: 11
• Issue: 47
• Pages: eadw8268
• Publication date: 2025-11-19
• Acceptance date: 2025-10-23
• DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.adw8268
• EISSN: 2375-2548
• ISSN: 2375-2548
• Pmid: 41259515
• Language: English
• Keywords: Hot Temperature; British Columbia; Extreme Heat; Climate Change; Forecasting; Mortality; Humans