Journal article
A quantitative evaluation of the impact of vaccine roll-out rate and coverage on reducing deaths: insights from the first 2 years of COVID-19 epidemic in Iran
- Abstract:
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Background: Vaccination has played a pivotal role in reducing the burden of COVID-19. Despite numerous studies highlighting its benefits in reducing the risk of severe disease and death, we still lack a quantitative understanding of how varying vaccination roll-out rates influence COVID-19 mortality.
Methods: We developed a framework for estimating the number of avertable COVID-19 deaths (ACDs) by vaccination in Iran. To achieve this, we compared Iran’s vaccination roll-out rates with those of eight model countries that predominantly used inactivated virus vaccines. We calculated net differences in the number of fully vaccinated individuals under counterfactual scenarios where Iran’s per-capita roll-out rate was replaced with that of the model countries. This, in turn, enabled us to determine age specific ACDs for the Iranian population under counterfactual scenarios where number of COVID-19 deaths are estimated using all-cause mortality data. These estimates covered the period from the start of 2020 to 20 April 2022.
Results: We found that while Iran would have had an approximately similar number of fully vaccinated individuals under counterfactual roll-out rates based on Bangladesh, Nepal, Sri Lanka, and Turkey (~ 65–70%), adopting Turkey’s roll-out rates could have averted 50,000 (95% confidence interval: 38,100–53,500) additional deaths, while following Bangladesh’s rates may have resulted in 52,800 (17,400–189,500) more fatalities in Iran. Surprisingly, mimicking Argentina’s slower roll-out led to only 12,600 (10,400–13,300) fewer deaths, despite a higher counterfactual percentage of fully vaccinated individuals (~ 79%). Emulating Montenegro or Bolivia, with faster per capita roll-out rates and approximately 50% counterfactual full vaccination, could have prevented more deaths in older age groups, especially during the early waves. Finally, replicating Bahrain’s model as an upper-bound benchmark, Iran could have averted 75,300 (56,000–83,000) deaths, primarily in the > 50 age groups.
Conclusions: Our analysis revealed that faster roll-outs were consistently associated with higher numbers of averted deaths, even in scenarios with lower overall coverage. This study offers valuable insights into future decision-making regarding infectious disease epidemic management through vaccination strategies. It accomplishes this by comparing various countries’ relative performance in terms of timing, pace, and vaccination coverage, ultimately contributing to the prevention of COVID-19-related deaths.
- Publication status:
- Published
- Peer review status:
- Peer reviewed
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- Files:
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(Preview, Version of record, pdf, 1.0MB, Terms of use)
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- Publisher copy:
- 10.1186/s12916-023-03127-8
Authors
- Publisher:
- BioMed Central
- Journal:
- BMC Medicine More from this journal
- Volume:
- 21
- Issue:
- 1
- Article number:
- 429
- Place of publication:
- England
- Publication date:
- 2023-11-13
- Acceptance date:
- 2023-10-23
- DOI:
- EISSN:
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1741-7015
- Pmid:
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37953291
- Language:
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English
- Keywords:
- Pubs id:
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1564738
- Local pid:
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pubs:1564738
- Deposit date:
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2024-10-22
Terms of use
- Copyright holder:
- Ghafari et al
- Copyright date:
- 2023
- Rights statement:
- © The Author(s) 2023. This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated in a credit line to the data.
- Licence:
- CC Attribution (CC BY)
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