The Kyoto protocol : Russian opportunities

Report

Much, possibly too much, of the most recent debate on Russian ratification of the Kyoto Protocol has centred around the issue whether the Kyoto emission limit would hinder Russian economic growth, particularly in the context of the ambitious decadal Russian growth targets. The aim of this paper is to return the focus of the debate to the opportunities which the Kyoto Protocol could afford the Russian economy and which would be lost if Russia fails to grasp them by bringing the treaty into force in the very near future.

In a first part, macro-economic data published in a World Bank National Clean Development Mechanisms/Joint Implementation (CDM/JI) Strategy Study is used to estimate the value of the Russian CO2 mitigation potential under the Kyoto mechanisms for different carbon prices. The second part addresses the question how this potential could most effectively be used for the Russian economy. It is argued that because of the leverage on foreign direct investment, the best use is through Joint Implementation projects. For maximum benefit to the Russian economy, these projects should start as soon as possible. This could, for example, be done under a linkage to the EU Emission Trading Scheme which uses Russian Assigned Amount Units (AAUs) as the ‘currency’ for such early reductions (prior to 2008). However, such opportunities will only materialise after an entry into force of the Kyoto Protocol.

Authors: Müller, B

• Publication status: Published
• Peer review status: Reviewed (other)
• Publisher: Royal Institute of International Affairs
• Series: OIES paper
• Publication date: 2004-01-01
• Edition: Publisher's version
• Paper number: RIIA Briefing Note
• Language: English
• Keywords: economic growth; Russia; OIES; joint implementation; energy efficiency; ETS; investment; Kyoto protocol; assigned amount units; emissions reductions; climate policy; co2 emissions; targets