Journal article
Forecast skill of the Indian monsoon and its onset in the ECMWF seasonal forecasting system 5 (SEAS5)
- Abstract:
- Accurate forecasting of variations in Indian monsoon precipitation and progression on seasonal time scales remains a challenge for prediction centres. We examine prediction skill for the seasonal-mean Indian summer monsoon and its onset in the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) seasonal forecasting system 5 (SEAS5). We analyse summer hindcasts initialised on 1st of May, with 51 ensemble members, for the 36-year period of 1981–2016. We evaluate the hindcasts against the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) precipitation observations and the ECMWF reanalysis 5 (ERA5). The model has significant skill at forecasting dynamical features of the large-scale monsoon and local-scale monsoon onset tercile category one month in advance. SEAS5 shows higher skill for monsoon features calculated using large-scale indices compared to those at smaller scales. Our results also highlight possible model deficiencies in forecasting the all India monsoon rainfall.
- Publication status:
- Published
- Peer review status:
- Peer reviewed
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(Preview, Version of record, 4.7MB, Terms of use)
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- Publisher copy:
- 10.1007/s00382-020-05624-5
Authors
- Publisher:
- Springer
- Journal:
- Climate Dynamics More from this journal
- Volume:
- 56
- Pages:
- 2941-2957
- Publication date:
- 2021-02-09
- Acceptance date:
- 2020-12-31
- DOI:
- EISSN:
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1432-0894
- ISSN:
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0930-7575
- Language:
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English
- Keywords:
- Pubs id:
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1161178
- Local pid:
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pubs:1161178
- Deposit date:
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2021-02-12
Terms of use
- Copyright holder:
- Crown Copyright
- Copyright date:
- 2021
- Rights statement:
- © Crown 2021. Open Access: This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder.
- Licence:
- CC Attribution (CC BY)
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