Projected future climatic forcing on the global distribution of vegetation types

Journal article

Most emissions scenarios suggest temperature and precipitation regimes will change dramatically across the globe over the next 500 years. These changes will have large impacts on the biosphere, with species forced to migrate to follow their preferred environmental conditions, therefore moving and fragmenting ecosystems. However, most projections of the impacts of climate change only reach 2100, limiting our understanding of the temporal scope of climate impacts, and potentially impeding suitable adaptive action. To address this data gap, we model future climate change every 20 years from 2000 to 2500 CE, under different CO2 emissions scenarios, using a general circulation model. We then apply a biome model to these modelled climate futures, to investigate shifts in climatic forcing on vegetation worldwide, the feasibility of the migration required to enact these modelled vegetation changes, and potential overlap with human land use based on modern-day anthromes. Under a business-as-usual scenario, up to 40% of terrestrial area is expected to be suited to a different biome by 2500. Cold-adapted biomes, particularly boreal forest and dry tundra, are predicted to experience the greatest losses of suitable area. Without mitigation, these changes could have severe consequences both for global biodiversity and the provision of ecosystem services.

Authors: Allen, BJ; Hill, DJ; Burke, AM; Clark, M; Marchant, R

• Publication status: Published
• Peer review status: Peer reviewed
• Publisher: Royal Society
• Journal: Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences
• Volume: 379
• Issue: 1902
• Article number: 20230011
• Publication date: 2024-04-08
• Acceptance date: 2024-03-07
• DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2023.0011
• EISSN: 1471-2970
• ISSN: 0962-8436
• Language: English
• Keywords: climate change; biodiversity; global warming; anthropogenic; biosphere; biome