Dual-use security dilemma and the U.S.-China AI technology race

Thesis

What is driving the U.S.-China race to develop artificial intelligence (AI)? Building on defensive realism, this thesis introduces the concept of dual-use distinguishability—how easily a state can differentiate between a technology’s military and civilian applications—to explain the dynamics of technological rivalry. Low distinguishability makes it harder for foreign states to differentiate between benign and malign uses of technologies, prompting them to adopt competitive actions to secure themselves against potential military action. While existing literature focuses on how technical features obscure a technology’s end use, this thesis identifies two additional sources of ambiguity arising from a state’s political economy. State-business relations describe the degree to which private interests are subordinate to state objectives. The more subordinate private firms are to the state, the more susceptible they are to government pressures to divert technologies to military use. Civil-military integration refers to the extent to which civilian and military industrial bases are mutually beneficial. The more integrated the civilian and military sectors, the likelier dual-use technologies in the civilian sector will find military applications. Through the methodology of process tracing and case study, the thesis accomplishes two objectives. First, it establishes country-level distinguishability as a tractable, observable feature of China’s political economy. Secondly, it shows how variations in Chinese distinguishability have shaped U.S. threat assessments and export control policies since the 1990s. In achieving these, this thesis advances the debate by adding politico-economic dimensions to the predominantly techno-centric notion of the dual-use security dilemma.

Authors: Kot, CHB

• DOI: 10.5287/ora-vgkrmonxe
• Type of award: MPhil
• Level of award: Masters
• Awarding institution: University of Oxford
• Language: English
• Keywords: U.S.-China; artificial intelligence; state-business relations; export controls; technology competition; dual-use distinguishability; civil-military integration; security dilemma; arms race
• Subjects: Technology and international relations; International relations