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Real-time seroprevalence and exposure levels of emerging pathogens in infection-naive host populations

Abstract:

For endemic pathogens, seroprevalence mimics overall exposure and is minimally influenced by the time that recent infections take to seroconvert. Simulating spatially-explicit and stochastic outbreaks, we set out to explore how, for emerging pathogens, the mix of exponential growth in infection events and a constant rate for seroconversion events could lead to real-time significant differences in the total numbers of exposed versus seropositive. We find that real-time seroprevalence of an eme...

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Publication status:
Published
Peer review status:
Peer reviewed

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Publisher copy:
10.1038/s41598-021-84672-1

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Publisher:
Springer Nature Publisher's website
Journal:
Scientific Reports Journal website
Volume:
11
Issue:
1
Article number:
5825
Publication date:
2021-03-12
Acceptance date:
2021-02-19
DOI:
EISSN:
2045-2322
Language:
English
Keywords:
Pubs id:
1163002
Local pid:
pubs:1163002
Deposit date:
2021-02-22

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