Decadal oscillation provides skillful multiyear predictions of Antarctic sea ice

Journal article

Over the satellite era, Antarctic sea ice exhibited an overall long-term increasing trend, contrary to the Arctic reduction under global warming. However, the drastic decline of Antarctic sea ice in 2014-2018 raises questions about its interannual and decadal-scale variabilities, which are poorly understood and predicted. Here, we identify an Antarctic sea ice decadal oscillation, exhibiting a quasi-period of 8-16 years, that is anticorrelated with the Pacific Quasi-Decadal Oscillation (r = -0.90). By combining observations, Coupled Model Intercomparison Project historical simulations, and pacemaker climate model experiments, we find evidence that the synchrony between the sea ice decadal oscillation and Pacific Quasi-Decadal Oscillation is linked to atmospheric poleward-propagating Rossby wave trains excited by heating in the central tropical Pacific. These waves weaken the Amundsen Sea Low, melting sea ice due to enhanced shortwave radiation and warm advection. A Pacific Quasi-Decadal Oscillation-based regression model shows that this tropical-polar teleconnection carries multi-year predictability.

Authors: Liu, Y; Sun, C; Li, J; Kucharski, F; Di Lorenzo, E

• Publication status: Published
• Peer review status: Peer reviewed
• Publisher: Nature Research
• Journal: Nature Communications
• Volume: 14
• Issue: 1
• Pages: 8286-8286
• Article number: 8286
• Publication date: 2023-12-13
• DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-44094-1
• EISSN: 2041-1723
• ISSN: 2041-1723
• Language: English
• Keywords: Environmental science; Antarctic sea ice; Arctic ice pack; Sea surface temperature; Pacific decadal oscillation; Climatology; Cryosphere; Arctic sea ice decline; Lead (geology); Oceanography; Sea ice; Predictability; Atmospheric sciences; Geology; Physics