Journal article
The Belt and Road Initiative: reshaping economic geography in Central Asia?
- Abstract:
- This paper develops a computable spatial equilibrium model of Central Asia and uses it to analyze the possible effects of the Belt and Road Initiative on the economy of the region. The model captures international and subnational economic units and their connectivity to each other and the rest of the world. Aggregate real income gains from the Belt Road Initiative range from less than 2 percent of regional income if adjustment mechanisms take the form of conventional Armington and monopolistic competition, to around 3 percent if there are localization economies of scale and labor mobility. In the latter case, there are sizeable geographical variations in impact, with some areas developing clusters of economic activity with income increases of as much as 12 percent and a doubling of local populations, while other areas stagnate or even decline.
- Publication status:
- Published
- Peer review status:
- Peer reviewed
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- Files:
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(Preview, Accepted manuscript, pdf, 1.2MB, Terms of use)
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- Publisher copy:
- 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2020.102441
Authors
- Publisher:
- Elsevier
- Journal:
- Journal of Development Economics More from this journal
- Volume:
- 144
- Article number:
- 102441
- Publication date:
- 2020-01-22
- Acceptance date:
- 2020-01-13
- DOI:
- ISSN:
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0304-3878
- Language:
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English
- Keywords:
- Pubs id:
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pubs:998377
- UUID:
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uuid:ac4839be-02fa-4284-97de-292ed1917740
- Local pid:
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pubs:998377
- Source identifiers:
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998377
- Deposit date:
-
2020-01-13
- ARK identifier:
Terms of use
- Copyright holder:
- Elsevier BV
- Copyright date:
- 2020
- Rights statement:
- © 2020 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
- Notes:
- This is the accepted manuscript version of the article. The final version is available online from Elsevier at: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2020.102441
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