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Bidder earnings forecasts in mergers and acquisitions

Abstract:
This study finds that pro-forma earnings forecasts by bidding firms during acquisitions are associated with a higher likelihood of deal completion, expedited deal closing, and with a lower acquisition premium − but only in stock-financed acquisitions. Analysts also respond to these forecasts by revising their forecasts for the bidder upward. However, the benefits of forecast disclosure only accrue to bidders with a strong forecasting reputation prior to the acquisition. Explaining why not all bidders forecast, we document a higher likelihood of post-merger litigation and CEO turnover for bidders with a weak forecasting reputation and for those that underperform post-merger.
Publication status:
Published
Peer review status:
Peer reviewed

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Publisher copy:
10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2019.06.002

Authors


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Institution:
University of Oxford
Division:
SSD
Oxford college:
Green Templeton College
Role:
Author
ORCID:
0000-0002-0176-1093


Publisher:
Elsevier
Journal:
Journal of Corporate Finance More from this journal
Volume:
58
Pages:
373-392
Publication date:
2019-06-10
Acceptance date:
2019-06-07
DOI:
ISSN:
0929-1199


Language:
English
Keywords:
Pubs id:
pubs:1011179
UUID:
uuid:ac1a61b8-84fc-4448-b209-17740e7db341
Local pid:
pubs:1011179
Source identifiers:
1011179
Deposit date:
2019-06-11

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