Journal article
Modelling the effects of diurnal temperature variation on malaria infection dynamics in mosquitoes
- Abstract:
- Mosquito infection experiments that characterise how sporogony changes with temperature are increasingly being used to parameterise malaria transmission models. In these experiments, mosquitoes are exposed to a range of temperatures, with each group experiencing a single temperature. Diurnal temperature variation can, however, affect the sporogonic cycle of Plasmodium parasites. Mosquito dissection data is not available for all temperature profiles, so we investigate whether mathematical models of mosquito infection parameterised with constant temperature thermal performance curves can predict the effects of diurnal temperature variation. We use this model to predict two key parameters governing disease transmission: the human-to-mosquito transmission probability and extrinsic incubation period – and, embed this model into a malaria transmission model to simulate sporozoite prevalence with and without the effects of diurnal and seasonal temperature variation for a single site in Burkina Faso. Simulations incorporating diurnal temperature variation better predict changes in sporogony in laboratory mosquitoes, indicating that constant temperature experiments can be used to predict the effects of fluctuating temperatures. Including the effects of diurnal temperature variation, however, did not substantially improve the predictive ability of the transmission model to predict changes in sporozoite prevalence in wild mosquitoes, indicating further research is needed in more settings.
- Publication status:
- Published
- Peer review status:
- Peer reviewed
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(Preview, Version of record, pdf, 1.5MB, Terms of use)
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- Publisher copy:
- 10.1038/s42003-025-07949-5
Authors
+ Medical Research Council
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- Funder identifier:
- https://ror.org/03x94j517
- Funding agency for:
- Stopard, IJ
- Churcher, TS
- Grant:
- MR/X020258/1
+ Wellcome Trust
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- Funder identifier:
- https://ror.org/029chgv08
- Grant:
- 226072/Z/22/Z
- 200222/Z/15/Z
- Funding agency for:
- Sanou, A
+ Natural Environment Research Council
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- Funder identifier:
- https://ror.org/02b5d8509
- Funding agency for:
- Stopard, IJ
- Grant:
- NE/P012345/1
+ U.S. National Science Foundation
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- Funder identifier:
- https://ror.org/021nxhr62
- Grant:
- DEB-1518681
+ National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases
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- Funder identifier:
- https://ror.org/043z4tv69
- Grant:
- R01AI110793
- Publisher:
- Nature Research
- Journal:
- Communications Biology More from this journal
- Volume:
- 8
- Issue:
- 1
- Article number:
- 581
- Publication date:
- 2025-04-08
- Acceptance date:
- 2025-03-04
- DOI:
- EISSN:
-
2399-3642
- ISSN:
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2399-3642
- Language:
-
English
- Pubs id:
-
2093477
- Local pid:
-
pubs:2093477
- Deposit date:
-
2025-03-05
- ARK identifier:
Terms of use
- Copyright holder:
- Stopard et al.
- Copyright date:
- 2025
- Rights statement:
- © The Author(s) 2025. Open Access. This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder.
- Licence:
- CC Attribution (CC BY)
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