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Prognostic value of different anthropometric indices over different measurement intervals to predict mortality in 6–59-month-old children

Abstract:

Objective: To compare the prognostic value of mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC), weight-for-height Z-score (WHZ) and weight-for-age Z-score (WAZ) for predicting death over periods of 1, 3 and 6 months follow-up in children.

Design: Pooled analysis of twelve prospective studies examining survival after anthropometric assessment. Sensitivity and false-positive ratios to predict death within 1, 3 and 6 months were compared for three individual anthropometric indices and their combinations.

Setting: Community-based, prospective studies from twelve countries in Africa and Asia.

Participants: Children aged 6–59 months living in the study areas.

Results: For all anthropometric indices, the receiver operating characteristic curves were higher for shorter than for longer durations of follow-up. Sensitivity was higher for death with 1-month follow-up compared with 6 months by 49 % (95 % CI (30, 69)) for MUAC < 115 mm (P < 0·001), 48 % (95 % CI (9·4, 87)) for WHZ < -3 (P < 0·01) and 28 % (95 % CI (7·6, 42)) for WAZ < -3 (P < 0·005). This was accompanied by an increase in false positives of only 3 % or less. For all durations of follow-up, WAZ < -3 identified more children who died and were not identified by WHZ < -3 or by MUAC < 115 mm, 120 mm or 125 mm, but the use of WAZ < -3 led to an increased false-positive ratio up to 16·4 % (95 % CI (12·0, 20·9)) compared with 3·5 % (95 % CI (0·4, 6·5)) for MUAC < 115 mm alone.

Conclusions: Frequent anthropometric measurements significantly improve the identification of malnourished children with a high risk of death without markedly increasing false positives. Combining two indices increases sensitivity but also increases false positives among children meeting case definitions.

Publication status:
Published
Peer review status:
Peer reviewed

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Publisher copy:
10.1017/S1368980023000149

Authors

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Role:
Author
ORCID:
0000-0003-1119-1474
More by this author
Institution:
University of Oxford
Division:
MSD
Department:
NDM
Sub department:
Tropical Medicine
Sub unit:
Centre for Tropical Medicine and Global Health at Oxford
Research group:
Centre for Tropical Medicine & Global Health
Oxford college:
Nuffield College
Role:
Author
ORCID:
0000-0002-1236-849X


Publisher:
Cambridge University Press
Journal:
Public Health Nutrition More from this journal
Volume:
26
Issue:
6
Pages:
1210–1221
Place of publication:
England
Publication date:
2023-02-01
Acceptance date:
2022-12-26
DOI:
EISSN:
1475-2727
ISSN:
1368-9800
Pmid:
36722310


Language:
English
Keywords:
Pubs id:
1327586
Local pid:
pubs:1327586
Deposit date:
2023-06-23
ARK identifier:

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