Journal article
A real-time Global Warming Index.
- Abstract:
- We propose a simple real-time index of global human-induced warming and assess its robustness to uncertainties in climate forcing and short-term climate fluctuations. This index provides improved scientific context for temperature stabilisation targets and has the potential to decrease the volatility of climate policy. We quantify uncertainties arising from temperature observations, climate radiative forcings, internal variability and the model response. Our index and the associated rate of human-induced warming is compatible with a range of other more sophisticated methods to estimate the human contribution to observed global temperature change.
- Publication status:
- Published
- Peer review status:
- Peer reviewed
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- Files:
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(Preview, Version of record, pdf, 1.7MB, Terms of use)
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- Publisher copy:
- 10.1038/s41598-017-14828-5
Authors
- Publisher:
- Nature Publishing Group
- Journal:
- Scientific Reports More from this journal
- Volume:
- 7
- Issue:
- 1
- Pages:
- 15417
- Publication date:
- 2017-11-13
- Acceptance date:
- 2017-10-05
- DOI:
- EISSN:
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2045-2322
- ISSN:
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2045-2322
- Pmid:
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29133863
- Language:
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English
- Keywords:
- Pubs id:
-
pubs:745982
- UUID:
-
uuid:a990e2fe-a63f-4685-88f8-71107643d4a4
- Local pid:
-
pubs:745982
- Source identifiers:
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745982
- Deposit date:
-
2018-01-04
Terms of use
- Copyright holder:
- Otto et al
- Copyright date:
- 2017
- Notes:
- © The Author(s) 2017. This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.
- Licence:
- CC Attribution (CC BY)
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