Journal article
Phase shifts of the PDO and AMO alter the translation distance of global tropical cyclones
- Abstract:
- Recent decadal changes in tropical cyclone (TC) frequency since the mid-1990s have been widely reported; however, it is unclear whether there have also been any changes in TC translation distance. Here, we show that long-term decrease in global TC translation distance during 1975–2020 is caused by an abrupt change point around the year 1997. This change point marks a switch between an increasing translation distance during 1975–1997 and decreasing translation distance during 1998–2020. The shift in TC translation distance is attributed to changes in the distance between the location of TC genesis and land, and the percentage of landfalling TCs to all TCs, which is driven by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) phase switch in the mid-1990s. In the last 20 years, the cool, La Niña-like sea surface temperatures (SST) during the PDO negative phase and the warm SST pattern during the AMO positive phase have enhanced the genesis potential index and the potential intensity in offshore areas, resulting in greater TC genesis landward. Phase shifts of PDO and AMO modulate environmental conditions, regulating TC genesis location and landfall frequency, and their combined effects on the translation distance of Pacific TCs. The warm SST anomalies during the AMO positive phase enhance these circulation patterns in two possible ways: via the Indian Ocean and the subtropical eastern Pacific relaying effects at a multidecadal timescale. Our findings suggest that the PDO and AMO act as key pacemakers for decadal changes in global TC translation distance.
- Publication status:
- Published
- Peer review status:
- Peer reviewed
Actions
Access Document
- Files:
-
-
(Preview, Version of record, pdf, 6.9MB, Terms of use)
-
- Publisher copy:
- 10.1029/2022EF003079
Authors
- Publisher:
- Wiley
- Journal:
- Earth's Future More from this journal
- Volume:
- 11
- Issue:
- 3
- Article number:
- e2022EF003079
- Publication date:
- 2023-03-02
- Acceptance date:
- 2023-02-09
- DOI:
- EISSN:
-
2328-4277
- Language:
-
English
- Keywords:
- Pubs id:
-
1328607
- Local pid:
-
pubs:1328607
- Deposit date:
-
2023-02-15
Terms of use
- Copyright holder:
- Wang et al.
- Copyright date:
- 2023
- Rights statement:
- © 2023 The Authors. Earth's Future published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American Geophysical Union. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs License, which permits use and distribution in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited, the use is non-commercial and no modifications or adaptations are made.
If you are the owner of this record, you can report an update to it here: Report update to this record