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Journal article

The UK’s referendum on EU membership of June 2016: how expectations of Brexit’s impact affected the outcome

Abstract:

The UK voted by a narrow margin to leave the European Union in a referendum on 23 June 2016. This article examines why this was the result and brings out comparative implications. Building on previous findings that expectations about the impact of Brexit were central to voters’ decisions, we seek to improve understanding of how these expectations mattered. On average across a range of issues, our analysis suggests that Leave would have won if voters had expected things to stay much the same f...

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Publication status:
Published
Peer review status:
Peer reviewed
Version:
Publisher's Version

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Publisher copy:
10.1057/s41269-018-0111-3

Authors


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Institution:
University of Oxford
Division:
Social Sciences
Department:
Sociology
Oxford college:
Trinity College
Role:
Author
ORCID:
0000-0002-1006-1638
Publisher:
Springer Publisher's website
Journal:
Acta Politica Journal website
Volume:
53
Issue:
4
Pages:
590–611
Publication date:
2018-08-01
Acceptance date:
2018-08-01
DOI:
EISSN:
1741-1416
ISSN:
0001-6810
Pubs id:
pubs:894214
URN:
uri:a7e7be1f-5eed-4fd6-9ed7-ec6f203ebf84
UUID:
uuid:a7e7be1f-5eed-4fd6-9ed7-ec6f203ebf84
Local pid:
pubs:894214

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