Extratropical teleconnections in a multi-model ensemble nudged towards the observed QBO

Andrews, MB; Butchart, N; Anstey, JA; Bednarz, E; Elsbury, D; García-Franco, JL; Kumar, V; Palmeiro, FM; Trencham, NE; Yoshida, K; Chai, Z; Hong, D-C; Huang, K; Jaison, AM; Kawatani, Y; Knight, JR; Lin, P; Lott, F; Lu, Y; Naoe, H; Osprey, SM; Richter, JH; Serva, F; Son, S-W; Tang, Q

Climate Research Collection

Journal article

Extratropical teleconnections in a multi-model ensemble nudged towards the observed QBO

Abstract:: The Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO), the dominant mode of interannual variability of monthly-mean zonal winds and temperatures in the equatorial stratosphere, has a significant influence on the circulation in other regions of the stratosphere and troposphere in boreal winter. To better understand these teleconnections, results from twelve models are analysed for three complementary experiments in which the QBO is either internally generated by the models (free-running), nudged towards the observed QBO, or nudged towards the observed climatology. For the multi-model ensemble mean we assess how well the free-running experiment captures the observed teleconnections, and whether the simulated teleconnections improve when the models are nudged to have a more realistic QBO. The observed relationship between the QBO phase and the strength of the boreal winter Polar Night Jet (PNJ) is weakly captured by the free-running experiment. The PNJ response is larger when the models are nudged towards the observed QBO, primarily because nudging reduces the bias in the QBO amplitude, resulting in a larger proportion of the models exhibiting a stronger QBO-PNJ relationship. Both free-running and nudged-QBO experiments capture a small and marginally significant increase in Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) frequency during the QBO-easterly phase relative to the QBO-westerly phase. Neither experiment captures the observed QBO influence on the timings of SSWs during winter nor the QBO teleconnection to the North Atlantic Oscillation. Nudging the QBO does, however, improve its influence on the latitudinal profile of the North Pacific sub-tropical jet and strength of tropical precipitation. We find that a more realistic representation of the QBO is beneficial for certain teleconnections, but their effective simulation likely depends on how well the underlying model processes respond to the QBO.

Publication status:: Published

Peer review status:: Peer reviewed

Actions

Email

Email this record

Send the bibliographic details of this record to your email address.

Your Email
Please enter the email address that the record information will be sent to.

-
Your message (optional)
Please add any additional information to be included within the email.
Share
Cite

Cite this record

APA Style

Andrews, M., Butchart, N., Anstey, J., Bednarz, E., Elsbury, D., García-Franco, J., Kumar, V., Palmeiro, F., Trencham, N., Yoshida, K., Chai, Z., Hong, D.-C., Huang, K., Jaison, A., Kawatani, Y., Knight, J., Lin, P., Lott, F., Lu, Y., … Tang, Q. (2026). Extratropical teleconnections in a multi-model ensemble nudged towards the observed QBO. Weather and Climate Dynamics, 7(3), 1797–1820.

MLA Style

Andrews, MB, et al. “Extratropical Teleconnections in a Multi-Model Ensemble Nudged towards the Observed QBO.” Weather and Climate Dynamics, vol. 7, no. 3, 2026, pp. 1797–820.

Chicago Style

Andrews, MB, N. Butchart, JA Anstey, et al. 2026. “Extratropical Teleconnections in a Multi-Model Ensemble Nudged towards the Observed QBO.” Weather and Climate Dynamics 7 (3): 1797–820.
Print