A school-based material needs intervention for chronic absenteeism: a state-wide staggered interrupted time series analysis

Journal article

Background: Chronically absent students miss learning opportunities at school, and as a result, may suffer academically and socially. Student absenteeism is rising across the USA, with 14%–30% of K-12 students being chronically absent (missing ≥10% of school days) each year. In 2012, Michigan started Pathways to Potential (P2P)—placing caseworkers in public schools to address the material needs of students that interfere with attendance. In this study, we evaluated the effect of P2P on chronic absenteeism in public schools across Michigan. Methods: Our quasi-experimental study included 160 Michigan K-12 public schools that began implementing P2P between 2012 and 2016. We evaluated the effect of P2P on chronic absenteeism using administrative data for academic years 2008–2009 through 2018–2019. We used a staggered interrupted time series (ITS) analysis, first modelling a simple ITS for each school, and then pooling effect estimates using random effects meta-analysis. We estimated meta-regressions to investigate heterogeneous treatment effects. Results: Results suggest P2P reduced chronic absenteeism rates by 7.88% (incidence rate ratio=0.92 (95% CI 0.88 to 0.96)), preventing 21 students from being chronically absent per school per year (95% CI 17.52 to 24.95). There was significant heterogeneity, with greater effects for schools that received a higher P2P dose, were in the eastern region of the state, had wealthier student bodies, and were less racially diverse. Conclusion: This school-based intervention represents a feasible and effective programme for preventing chronic absenteeism. Further standardising the programme, while ensuring P2P can address diverse needs, may produce more consistent results across schools.

Authors: Sokol, R; Degli Esposti, M; Victor, BG; Kernsmith, P; Medina Del Toro, V

• Publication status: Published
• Peer review status: Peer reviewed
• Publisher: BMJ Publishing Group
• Journal: Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health
• Article number: jech-2025-224567
• Publication date: 2025-11-19
• Acceptance date: 2025-10-29
• DOI: 10.1136/jech-2025-224567
• EISSN: 1470-2738
• ISSN: 0143005X, 0143-005X
• Language: English
• Keywords: ADOLESCENT; NEEDS ASSESSMENT; POVERTY; FOOD INSECURITY; EDUCATION