Journal article
Forecasting climate change using a multivariate cointegrated system
- Abstract:
-
A cointegrated vector equilibrium correction model of key climate variables including sea surface temperature, ocean heat content, Arctic sea-ice extent and sea-level change is built, driven by radiative forcing in which a stochastic trend arises due to anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases. A valid and congruent statistical model requires saturation estimation to model breaks in trends, while also conditioning on natural radiative forcings and El Ni˜no–Southern Oscillation. The model is stable over 150 years, reflecting the slow adjustment of the deep oceans to increased greenhouse gas concentrations, and predicts an equilibrium climate sensitivity of 2.6 ◦C. Projections out to 2100 highlight the many uncertainties over the coming decades.
- Publication status:
- Published
- Peer review status:
- Peer reviewed
Actions
Access Document
- Files:
-
-
(Preview, Version of record, pdf, 2.2MB, Terms of use)
-
- Publisher copy:
- 10.1111/obes.70047
Authors
- Publisher:
- Wiley
- Journal:
- Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics More from this journal
- Publication date:
- 2026-02-14
- Acceptance date:
- 2026-01-06
- DOI:
- EISSN:
-
1468-0084
- ISSN:
-
0305-9049
- Language:
-
English
- Keywords:
- Pubs id:
-
2356568
- Local pid:
-
pubs:2356568
- Deposit date:
-
2026-01-06
- ARK identifier:
Terms of use
- Copyright holder:
- Castle et al
- Copyright date:
- 2026
- Rights statement:
- © 2026 The Author(s). Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics published by Oxford University and John Wiley & Sons Ltd. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
- Notes:
- This article has been accepted for publication in Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics.
- Licence:
- CC Attribution (CC BY)
If you are the owner of this record, you can report an update to it here: Report update to this record