Journal article
Card forecasts for M4
- Abstract:
- The M4 forecast competition required forecasts of 100,000 time series at different frequencies. We provide a detailed description of the calibrated average of Rho and Delta (Card) forecasting method that we developed for this purpose. Delta estimates a dampened trend from the growth rates, while Rho estimates an adaptive but simple autoregressive model. Calibration estimates a more elaborate autoregressive model, treating the averaged forecasts from Rho and Delta as if they were observed. The proposed method is easy to understand, combining very fast execution with an excellent forecast performance.
- Publication status:
- Published
- Peer review status:
- Peer reviewed
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(Preview, Version of record, pdf, 297.0KB, Terms of use)
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- Publisher copy:
- 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2019.03.012
Authors
- Publisher:
- Elsevier
- Journal:
- International Journal of Forecasting More from this journal
- Volume:
- 36
- Issue:
- 1
- Pages:
- 129-134
- Publication date:
- 2019-05-31
- Acceptance date:
- 2019-05-22
- DOI:
- ISSN:
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0169-2070
- Language:
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English
- Keywords:
- Pubs id:
-
pubs:1003406
- UUID:
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uuid:a3e88042-9303-4da9-87ba-4146ed9a4eb0
- Local pid:
-
pubs:1003406
- Source identifiers:
-
1003406
- Deposit date:
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2019-05-29
- ARK identifier:
Terms of use
- Copyright holder:
- Doornik et al.
- Copyright date:
- 2019
- Rights statement:
- © 2019 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. on behalf of International Institute of Forecasters. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
- Notes:
- An erratum for this article is available online at: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2021.01.012
- Licence:
- CC Attribution (CC BY)
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