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Viewpoint: When will AI exceed human performance? Evidence from AI experts

Abstract:

Advances in artificial intelligence (AI) will transform modern life by reshaping transportation, health, science, finance, and the military. To adapt public policy, we need to better anticipate these advances. Here we report the results from a large survey of machine learning researchers on their beliefs about progress in AI. Researchers predict AI will outperform humans in many activities in the next ten years, such as translating languages (by 2024), writing high-school essays (by 2026), dr...

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Publication status:
Published
Peer review status:
Peer reviewed
Version:
Accepted Manuscript

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Publisher copy:
10.1613/jair.1.11222

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More by this author
Institution:
University of Oxford
Division:
Humanities Division
Department:
Philosophy
Role:
Author
More by this author
Institution:
University of Oxford
Role:
Author
More by this author
Institution:
University of Oxford
Division:
Humanities Division
Department:
Philosophy
Role:
Author
Publisher:
AI Access Foundation Publisher's website
Journal:
Journal of Artificial Intelligence Research Journal website
Volume:
62
Pages:
729-754
Publication date:
2018-07-31
Acceptance date:
2018-04-30
DOI:
EISSN:
1943-5037
ISSN:
1076-9757
Pubs id:
pubs:916694
URN:
uri:9ef0935d-5ad5-48f7-934b-558f272f50f7
UUID:
uuid:9ef0935d-5ad5-48f7-934b-558f272f50f7
Local pid:
pubs:916694

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