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Journal article

Uncertainty in weather and climate prediction.

Abstract:

Following Lorenz's seminal work on chaos theory in the 1960s, probabilistic approaches to prediction have come to dominate the science of weather and climate forecasting. This paper gives a perspective on Lorenz's work and how it has influenced the ways in which we seek to represent uncertainty in forecasts on all lead times from hours to decades. It looks at how model uncertainty has been represented in probabilistic prediction systems and considers the challenges posed by a changing climate...

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Publication status:
Published

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Publisher copy:
10.1098/rsta.2011.0161

Authors


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Institution:
University of Oxford
Department:
Oxford, MPLS, Physics, Atmos Ocean and Planet Physics
Role:
Author
Journal:
Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences
Volume:
369
Issue:
1956
Pages:
4751-4767
Publication date:
2011-12-05
DOI:
EISSN:
1471-2962
ISSN:
1364-503X
URN:
uuid:992d96f7-8b31-4b14-ad6d-0af276f06e79
Source identifiers:
317525
Local pid:
pubs:317525

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