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Journal article

The influence of cost‐effectiveness and other factors on nice decisions

Abstract:

The National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) emphasises that cost‐effectiveness is not the only consideration in health technology appraisal and is increasingly explicit about other factors considered relevant but not the weight attached to each.
The objective of this study is to investigate the influence of cost‐effectiveness and other factors on NICE decisions and whether NICE's decision‐making has changed over time.
We model NICE's decisions as binary choices for or against a health care technology in a specific patient group. Independent variables comprised of the following: clinical and economic evidence; characteristics of patients, disease or treatment; and contextual factors potentially affecting decision‐making. Data on all NICE decisions published by December 2011 were obtained from HTAinSite [www.htainsite.com].
Cost‐effectiveness alone correctly predicted 82% of decisions; few other variables were significant and alternative model specifications had similar performance. There was no evidence that the threshold has changed significantly over time. The model with highest prediction accuracy suggested that technologies costing £40 000 per quality‐adjusted life‐year (QALY) have a 50% chance of NICE rejection (75% at £52 000/QALY; 25% at £27 000/QALY).
Past NICE decisions appear to have been based on a higher threshold than £20 000–£30 000/QALY. However, this may reflect consideration of other factors that cannot be easily quantified.

Publication status:
Published
Peer review status:
Peer reviewed

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Files:
Publisher copy:
10.1002/hec.3086

Authors


More by this author
Institution:
University of Oxford
Division:
MSD
Department:
Nuffield Department of Population Health
Sub department:
Population Health
Role:
Author
More by this author
Institution:
University of Oxford
Division:
MSD
Department:
Oncology
Sub department:
CRUK/MRC Ox Inst for Radiation Oncology
Oxford college:
St Cross College
Role:
Author


Publisher:
Wiley
Journal:
Health Economics More from this journal
Volume:
24
Issue:
10
Pages:
1256-1271
Publication date:
2014-09-23
Acceptance date:
2014-06-20
DOI:
EISSN:
1099-1050
ISSN:
1057-9230
Pmid:
25251336


Language:
English
Keywords:
Pubs id:
pubs:485446
UUID:
uuid:973473f0-eb87-4ea9-b9fa-9219b5edfa22
Local pid:
pubs:485446
Source identifiers:
485446
Deposit date:
2017-01-03

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