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Tremors but no youthquake: Measuring changes in the age and turnout gradients at the 2015 and 2017 British general elections

Abstract:

In the aftermath of the 2017 UK General Election, some claimed that Labour performed unexpectedly well because of a surge in youth turnout. Polling estimates for the size of this ‘youthquake’ ranged from 12 to 21 points amongst 18–24 year olds. Using conventional and Bayesian statistical methods, we analyse British Election Study and British Social Attitudes random probability surveys and find no evidence of a shift in the relationship between age and turnout of this scale. Using the pooled B...

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Publication status:
Published
Peer review status:
Peer reviewed

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Institution:
University of Oxford
Division:
SSD
Department:
Politics & Int Relations
Role:
Author
Publisher:
Elsevier
Journal:
Electoral Studies More from this journal
Volume:
64
Article number:
102129
Publication date:
2020-03-09
Acceptance date:
2020-02-08
DOI:
EISSN:
1873-6890
ISSN:
0261-3794
Language:
English
Keywords:
Pubs id:
833408
Local pid:
pubs:833408
Deposit date:
2020-08-21

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