The rise of Viet Nam’s solar panel industry: inputs, FDI, and spillovers

Working paper

When countries subsidize the production and innovation of green goods, does it make it easier for others to join their value chains? We explore this question using Viet Nam’s solar panel industry as a case study, using firm-to-firm transaction data to map out its value chain. We find that Viet Nam imports solar parts and components at substantially lower prices from subsidizing countries: about 30% cheaper than from non-subsidizing countries and nearly 50% cheaper from China, where all key inputs are subsidized. We also find that Chinese FDI firms - which account for around 75% of exports and 50% of jobs among all solar producers - export solar panels at around 38% cheaper than other solar panel exporters in Viet Nam. Lastly, we find that local suppliers of solar panel parts and components linked to these firms experience positive productivity gains. Together, the results are consistent with subsidy spillovers that operate through cheaper intermediate inputs, transmission of cost advantage through multinational production networks, and productivity spillovers to local firms.

Authors: Ngov, MY; Vézina, P-L; Tran, TT; Nayyar, G

• Publication status: Published
• Publisher: University of Oxford
• Series: CSAE Working Papers Series
• Publication date: 2025-12-05
• Paper number: csae-wps-2025-14
• Language: English
• Keywords: green subsidies; FDI; global value chains