Journal article
Quantifying non-CO2 contributions to remaining carbon budgets
- Abstract:
- The IPCC Special Report on 1.5 °C concluded that anthropogenic global warming is determined by cumulative anthropogenic CO2 emissions and the non-CO2 radiative forcing level in the decades prior to peak warming. We quantify this using CO2-forcing-equivalent (CO2-fe) emissions. We produce an observationally constrained estimate of the Transient Climate Response to cumulative carbon Emissions (TCRE), giving a 90% confidence interval of 0.26–0.78 °C/TtCO2, implying a remaining total CO2-fe budget from 2020 to 1.5 °C of 350–1040 GtCO2-fe, where non-CO2 forcing changes take up 50 to 300 GtCO2-fe. Using a central non-CO2 forcing estimate, the remaining CO2 budgets are 640, 545, 455 GtCO2 for a 33, 50 or 66% chance of limiting warming to 1.5 °C. We discuss the impact of GMST revisions and the contribution of non-CO2 mitigation to remaining budgets, determining that reporting budgets in CO2-fe for alternative definitions of GMST, displaying CO2 and non-CO2 contributions using a two-dimensional presentation, offers the most transparent approach.
- Publication status:
- Published
- Peer review status:
- Peer reviewed
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(Preview, Version of record, 2.5MB, Terms of use)
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- Publisher copy:
- 10.1038/s41612-021-00203-9
Authors
- Publisher:
- Springer Nature
- Journal:
- npj Climate and Atmospheric Science More from this journal
- Volume:
- 4
- Article number:
- 47
- Publication date:
- 2021-10-14
- Acceptance date:
- 2021-09-13
- DOI:
- EISSN:
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2397-3722
- Language:
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English
- Keywords:
- Pubs id:
-
1202862
- Local pid:
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pubs:1202862
- Deposit date:
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2021-10-14
Terms of use
- Copyright holder:
- Jenkins et al.
- Copyright date:
- 2021
- Rights statement:
- © The Author(s) 2021. Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder.
- Licence:
- CC Attribution (CC BY)
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