Mind the gap: why wealthy voters support Brexit

Journal article

Wealth provides self-insurance against financial risk, reducing risk aversion. We apply this insurance mechanism to electoral behaviour, arguing that a voter who desires a change to the status quo and who is wealthy is more likely to vote for change than a voter who lacks the same self-insurance. We apply this argument to the case of Brexit in the UK, which has been widely characterized as a vote by the ‘economically left-behind’. Our results show that individuals who lacked wealth are less likely to support leaving the EU, explaining why so many Brexit voters were wealthy, in terms of their property wealth. We corroborate our theory using two panel surveys, accounting for unobserved individual-level heterogeneity, and by using a survey experiment. The findings have implications for the potential broader role of wealth-as-insurance in electoral behaviour and for understanding the Brexit case.

Authors: Green, J; Pahontu, RL

• Publication status: Published
• Peer review status: Peer reviewed
• Publisher: Cambridge University Press
• Journal: British Journal of Political Science
• Volume: 54
• Issue: 4
• Pages: 1067-1087
• Publication date: 2024-05-03
• Acceptance date: 2023-08-26
• DOI: 10.1017/S0007123423000728
• EISSN: 1469-2112
• ISSN: 0007-1234
• Language: English
• Keywords: wealth; Brexit; risk; voting behaviour; insurance