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Journal article

Warming accelerates global drought severity

Abstract:

Drought is one of the most common and complex natural hazards affecting the environment, economies and populations globally1,2,3,4. However, there are significant uncertainties in global drought trends4,5,6, and a limited understanding of the extent to which a key driver, atmospheric evaporative demand (AED), impacts the recent evolution of the magnitude, frequency, duration and areal extent of droughts. Here, by developing an ensemble of high-resolution global drought datasets for 1901–2022, we find an increasing trend in drought severity worldwide. Our findings suggest that AED has increased drought severity by an average of 40% globally. Not only are typically dry regions becoming drier but also wet areas are experiencing drying trends. During the past 5 years (2018–2022), the areas in drought have expanded by 74% on average compared with 1981–2017, with AED contributing to 58% of this increase. The year 2022 was record-breaking, with 30% of the global land area affected by moderate and extreme droughts, 42% of which was attributed to increased AED. Our findings indicate that AED has an increasingly important role in driving severe droughts and that this tendency will likely continue under future warming scenarios.

Publication status:
Published
Peer review status:
Peer reviewed

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Publisher copy:
10.1038/s41586-025-09047-2

Authors

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Institution:
University of Oxford
Division:
SSD
Department:
SOGE
Sub department:
Smith School
Role:
Author
ORCID:
0000-0001-7498-0695
More by this author
Role:
Author
ORCID:
0000-0003-2892-518X
More by this author
Role:
Author
ORCID:
0000-0001-6186-5751


Publisher:
Springer Nature
Journal:
Nature More from this journal
Volume:
642
Issue:
8068
Pages:
628-635
Publication date:
2025-06-04
Acceptance date:
2025-04-18
DOI:
EISSN:
1476-4687
ISSN:
0028-0836


Language:
English
Keywords:
Pubs id:
2128246
Local pid:
pubs:2128246
Deposit date:
2025-06-05
ARK identifier:

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