Journal article
The link between North Atlantic tropical cyclones and ENSO in seasonal forecasts
- Abstract:
- This study assesses the ability of six European seasonal forecast models to simulate the observed teleconnection between ENSO and tropical cyclones (TCs) over the North Atlantic. While the models generally capture the basin-wide observed link, its magnitude is overestimated in all forecast models compared to reanalysis. Furthermore, the ENSO-TC relationship in the Caribbean is poorly simulated. It is shown that incorrect forecasting of wind shear appears to affect the representation of the teleconnection in some models, however it is not a completely sufficient explanation for the overestimation of the link.
- Publication status:
- Published
- Peer review status:
- Peer reviewed
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(Preview, Version of record, pdf, 6.8MB, Terms of use)
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- Publisher copy:
- 10.1002/asl.1190
Authors
- Publisher:
- Wiley
- Journal:
- Atmospheric Science Letters More from this journal
- Volume:
- 25
- Issue:
- 1
- Article number:
- e1190
- Publication date:
- 2023-09-20
- Acceptance date:
- 2023-09-05
- DOI:
- EISSN:
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1530-261X
- Language:
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English
- Keywords:
- Pubs id:
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1522145
- Local pid:
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pubs:1522145
- Deposit date:
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2023-09-06
Terms of use
- Copyright holder:
- Doane-Solomon et al.
- Copyright date:
- 2023
- Rights statement:
- © 2023 The Authors. Atmospheric Science Letters published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of the Royal Meteorological Society. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
- Licence:
- CC Attribution (CC BY)
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