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Journal article

The link between North Atlantic tropical cyclones and ENSO in seasonal forecasts

Abstract:
This study assesses the ability of six European seasonal forecast models to simulate the observed teleconnection between ENSO and tropical cyclones (TCs) over the North Atlantic. While the models generally capture the basin-wide observed link, its magnitude is overestimated in all forecast models compared to reanalysis. Furthermore, the ENSO-TC relationship in the Caribbean is poorly simulated. It is shown that incorrect forecasting of wind shear appears to affect the representation of the teleconnection in some models, however it is not a completely sufficient explanation for the overestimation of the link.
Publication status:
Published
Peer review status:
Peer reviewed

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Publisher copy:
10.1002/asl.1190

Authors


More by this author
Institution:
University of Oxford
Division:
MPLS
Department:
Physics
Sub department:
Atmos Ocean & Planet Physics
Role:
Author
More by this author
Institution:
University of Oxford
Division:
MPLS
Department:
Physics
Sub department:
Atmos Ocean & Planet Physics
Role:
Author
More by this author
Institution:
University of Oxford
Division:
MPLS
Department:
Physics
Sub department:
Atmos Ocean & Planet Physics
Research group:
National Centre for Atmospheric Science
Role:
Author
ORCID:
0000-0002-7231-6974


Publisher:
Wiley
Journal:
Atmospheric Science Letters More from this journal
Volume:
25
Issue:
1
Article number:
e1190
Publication date:
2023-09-20
Acceptance date:
2023-09-05
DOI:
EISSN:
1530-261X


Language:
English
Keywords:
Pubs id:
1522145
Local pid:
pubs:1522145
Deposit date:
2023-09-06

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