Why Xi’s pro-natalist turn is failing: legibility, marketized neo-familism, and micropolitical refusal in China

Journal article

Perhaps no state in modern history has intervened in human reproduction as extensively as the People’s Republic of China, yet few reversals of reproductive policy have been as visibly ineffective as Xi Jinping’s pro-natalist turn. The country’s population fell for a fourth consecutive year in 2025 as the birthrate plunged to another record low despite the introduction of a raft of birth- and family-friendly subsidies and measures since the one-child policy officially ended in 2016. This article argues that China’s current fertility crisis is best understood as a failure of asymmetric reproductive governance: the long tail of “China’s longest campaign” reveals that the unforeseen consequences of the party-state’s well-honed capacity to suppress births through coercively applied administrative controls has undermined its ability to now encourage births. The one-child regime was not merely coercive: it was socially transformative, resulting in a neo-familist, high-investment, “low fertility trap” of the party’s own making, and from which it is unlikely to escape.

Authors: Thornton, P

• Publication status: Published
• Peer review status: Peer reviewed
• Publisher: China Leadership Monitor
• Journal: China Leadership Monitor
• Issue: 88
• Publication date: 2026-06-01
• Acceptance date: 2026-05-31
• EISSN: 1084-6302
• Language: English