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Curbing Optimism Bias and Strategic Misrepresentation in Planning: Reference Class Forecasting in Practice

Abstract:

The American Planning Association recently endorsed a new forecasting method called reference class forecasting, which is based on theories of planning and decision-making that won the 2002 Nobel prize in economics. This paper details the method and describes the first instance of reference class forecasting in planning practice. First, the paper documents that inaccurate projections of costs, demand, and other impacts of plans are a major problem in planning. Second, the paper explains inacc...

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Bent Flyvbjerg More by this author
Publication date:
2008-01-05
URN:
uuid:82761425-46df-4200-9ef1-b611d73433af
Local pid:
oai:eureka.sbs.ox.ac.uk:717

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