Modelling human values within the shared socio-economic pathways

Report

Human values are increasingly recognised as important drivers of sustainability transitions. The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) provide a framework of alternative development trajectories that vary in their challenges to climate change mitigation and adaptation. While SSP narratives implicitly reflect differing societal priorities, values are not explicitly formalised or quantified.

Here we develop an approach for making value dynamics explicit in scenario analysis. We frame 8 value categories using substantive value frameworks. Using World Values Survey data (2000–2023) we confirm four distinct value types: an Eco-centric type characterised by environmental concern; a Security–order type characterised by governance and social stability; a Conformity type characterised by adherence to prevailing norms, and hierarchical social structures; and an Achievement type characterised by wealth and personal success.

We demonstrate our approach through futures modelling under SSP1 alongside trajectories of improving human development as measured by the Human Development Index (HDI). We use our modelling to show how the four value types co-evolve.

With rising human development we find a slow shift towards sustainability-oriented value types. Eco-centric values strengthen over time but do not become the largest global type until the mid-21st century (around 2055), with earlier transitions in the Global North (around 2040) and later in the Global South (around 2060). At the same time, improvements in human development also strengthen Achievement value types, particularly in the Global South. These findings reflect not only uneven progress but ongoing trade-offs between long-term sustainability goals and immediate socio-economic priorities.

Sustainability transitions are unlikely to see convergence towards a single dominant value system, but instead reflect persistent coexistence and competition between multiple social priorities under changing development conditions. Explicitly representing value diversity in scenario analysis helps capture these trade-offs.

Authors: Pettifor, H; Agnew, M; Wilson, C

• Publication status: Published
• Publisher: Environmental Change Institute
• Place of publication: Oxford, UK
• DOI: 10.5287/ora-prm67xp8k
• Language: English
• Keywords: human values; SSPs; value projections; sustainable futures