Journal article
A data-driven analysis of the economic cost of non-pharmaceutical interventions: a cross-country comparison of Kenya, Singapore, and Thailand
- Abstract:
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Objective: To estimate the economic impact of border closure and social distancing by estimating the decline of gross domestic product (GDP) in Kenya, Singapore and Thailand.
Methods: We analysed secondary data retrospectively. To calculate impact of NPIs on GDP, the relationship between GDP and stock market index was examined using ordinary least squares (OLS). Then, autoregressive and moving averages (ARMA) model was used to examine the impact of NPI on stock market index. The change in GDP due to NPIs was derived by multiplying coefficients of OLS and ARMA models.
Results: An increase in stock market index correlated with an increase in GDP, while both social distancing and border closure negatively correlated with stock market index. Implementation of NPIs correlated with the decline in GDP. Thai border closure had a greater decline in GDP than social distancing; Kenya exhibited the same trends; Singapore had the opposite trend.
Conclusion: We quantified the magnitude of economic impact of NPIs in terms of GDP decline by linking stock market index and GDP. This approach may be applicable in other settings.
- Publication status:
- Published
- Peer review status:
- Peer reviewed
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- Files:
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(Preview, Version of record, pdf, 1.2MB, Terms of use)
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- Publisher copy:
- 10.3389/ijph.2022.1604854
Authors
- Publisher:
- Frontiers Media
- Journal:
- International Journal of Public Health More from this journal
- Volume:
- 67
- Article number:
- 1604854
- Place of publication:
- Switzerland
- Publication date:
- 2022-06-28
- Acceptance date:
- 2022-05-31
- DOI:
- EISSN:
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1661-8564
- ISSN:
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1661-8556
- Pmid:
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35837381
- Language:
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English
- Keywords:
- Pubs id:
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1269080
- Local pid:
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pubs:1269080
- Deposit date:
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2023-05-10
Terms of use
- Copyright holder:
- Briones et al
- Copyright date:
- 2022
- Rights statement:
- © 2022 Briones, Wang, Prawjaeng, Wee, Kairu, Orangi, Barasa and Teerawattananon. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) and the copyright owner(s) are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
- Licence:
- CC Attribution (CC BY)
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