Relative roles of different tropical oceans on the weakening of the stratospheric equatorial quasi-biennial oscillation

Journal article

The Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) is the dominant mode of tropical stratospheric variability that modulates global circulation and climate. Although a long-term weakening of QBO amplitude has been observed under global warming, the relative roles of different tropical oceans remain unclear. We perform sensitivity experiments forced by sea surface temperature perturbations over the tropical Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian Oceans, as well as their combined warming, to separate individual and joint effects. Pacific warming produces the strongest weakening and slowest descent of the QBO, whereas Atlantic warming slightly strengthens the amplitude and extends the vertical structure. Indian Ocean warming slightly weakens the amplitude and accelerates the descent. When all three oceans warm simultaneously, the QBO exhibits a weaker amplitude and faster descent, consistent in sign with the combined single-basin responses but with a reduced magnitude owing to diminished zonal and inter-basin SST gradients. Momentum budget analyses further show that basin-dependent competition between equatorial wave forcing and tropical upwelling underlies these contrasting responses.

Authors: Wang, Y; Rao, J; Garfinkel, CI; Ren, R; Osprey, SM

• Publication status: Published
• Peer review status: Peer reviewed
• Publisher: Nature Research
• Journal: npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
• Publication date: 2026-02-25
• Acceptance date: 2026-02-16
• DOI: 10.1038/s41612-026-01359-y
• EISSN: 2397-3722
• ISSN: 2397-3722
• Language: English
• Keywords: Forcing (mathematics); Sea surface temperature; Walker circulation; Equator; Upwelling; Tropics; Global warming; Oscillation (cell signaling); Quasi-biennial oscillation; Amplitude