Extreme weather events and the support for democracy

Working paper

Climate change and the erosion of democratic norms are two of the most pressing global challenges. This paper establishes a link between individuals’ support for democracy and extreme weather events, such as droughts, in the context of sub-Saharan Africa—a region highly vulnerable to climate change and where democratic norms are fragile. I analyze this relationship using Afrobarometer data on support for democracy from 2002 to 2015, covering 129,002 individuals across 16 countries, combined with granular weather data from 1960 to 2015 at a 27km × 27km grid cell resolution. I find that exposure to drought reduces support for democracy by 2.56%, but that this effect is limited to individuals living in established democracies. I further explore how this weakening of democratic norms is linked to exposure to non-democratic governance systems, proxied by proximity to development projects funded by autocratic regimes. I find that the effect of droughts on support for democracy is significant only for individuals exposed to autocratic systems. Finally, I provide suggestive evidence that this reduction in support for democracy is associated with lower political engagement, as measured by participation in demonstrations. These findings highlight the political costs of climate change in developing countries.

Authors: Cerkez, N

• Publication status: Published
• Publisher: University of Oxford
• Series: CSAE Working Paper Series
• Place of publication: Oxford
• Publication date: 2025-03-28
• Paper number: CSAE-wps-2025-03
• Language: English
• Keywords: support for democracy; non-democratic systems; climate change