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Calibrating climate change time-slice projections with estimates of seasonal forecast reliability

Abstract:

In earlier work, it was proposed that the reliability of climate change projections, particularly of regional rainfall, could be improved if such projections were calibrated using quantitative measures of reliability obtained by running the same model in seasonal forecast mode. This proposal is tested for fast atmospheric processes (such as clouds and convection) by considering output from versions of the same atmospheric general circulation model run at two different resolutions and forced w...

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Publication status:
Published
Peer review status:
Peer reviewed
Version:
Publisher's version

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Publisher copy:
10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0087.1

Authors


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Institution:
University of Oxford
Division:
MPLS Division
Department:
Physics; Atmos Ocean & Planet Physics
More by this author
Institution:
University of Oxford
Division:
MPLS Division
Department:
Physics; Atmos Ocean & Planet Physics
Oxford college:
University College
More by this author
Institution:
University of Oxford
Division:
MPLS Division
Department:
Physics; Atmos Ocean & Planet Physics
Oxford college:
Jesus College
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Grant:
Project 291406 and the EU FP7 funded project SPECS (Grant 308378)
Publisher:
American Meteorological Society Publisher's website
Journal:
Journal of Climate Journal website
Volume:
29
Issue:
10
Pages:
3831-3840
Publication date:
2016-05-10
Acceptance date:
2016-03-14
DOI:
EISSN:
1520-0442
ISSN:
0894-8755
Pubs id:
pubs:646125
URN:
uri:7ad101f9-5b8c-4cb9-b2be-02a6eaba1110
UUID:
uuid:7ad101f9-5b8c-4cb9-b2be-02a6eaba1110
Local pid:
pubs:646125

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