Updating estimates of Plasmodium knowlesi malaria risk in response to changing land use patterns across Southeast Asia

Tobin, RJ; Harrison, LE; Tully, MK; Lubis, IND; Noviyanti, R; Anstey, NM; Rajahram, GS; Grigg, MJ; Flegg, JA; Price, DJ; Shearer, FM

Climate Research Collection

Journal article

Updating estimates of Plasmodium knowlesi malaria risk in response to changing land use patterns across Southeast Asia

Abstract:: INTRODUCTION: Malaria transmission is highly spatially heterogeneous. Within Southeast Asia, forested landscapes are associated both with increased malaria transmission and reduced healthcare access. Identifying environments with malaria foci is a priority for control and elimination programmes. METHODS: Here, we integrate health facility and environmental data to identify optimal surveillance approaches across a forested district in the Philippines. We conducted convenience surveys of health facility attendees utilising tablet-based applications to geolocate participant residences. Malaria infection was assessed using both routine (microscopy and rapid diagnostic test) and molecular methods. Integrating remote-sensing derived data, we assessed how fine-scale environmental factors influence the spatial distributions of malaria infections, diagnostic sensitivity and health-seeking behavior. We evaluated costs and probability of detecting malaria foci for multiple surveillance approaches using different diagnostic methods and target populations defined by landscape data. RESULTS: We demonstrate that health facility-based surveys increase the probability of detecting malaria infections by increasing numbers of individuals screened and spatial coverage of surveillance systems. We additionally show sensitivity of routine malaria diagnostics varies spatially, with the decreased sensitivity in forests. By targeting diagnostic methods to high-risk environments, we developed a model approach for how to use landscape data within disease surveillance systems. Risk-based surveillance incorporating forest data is highly cost-effective and increases the probability of detecting malaria foci over three-fold compared to routine surveillance. DISCUSSION: Together, this illustrates the essential role of environmental data in designing risk-based surveillance to provide an operationally feasible and cost-effective method to characterise malaria transmission

Publication status:: Published

Peer review status:: Peer reviewed

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APA Style

Tobin, R. J., Harrison, L. E., Tully, M. K., Lubis, I. N. D., Noviyanti, R., Anstey, N. M., Rajahram, G. S., Grigg, M. J., Flegg, J. A., Price, D. J., & Shearer, F. M. (2024). Updating estimates of Plasmodium knowlesi malaria risk in response to changing land use patterns across Southeast Asia. PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, 18(1), e0011570–e0011570.

MLA Style

Tobin, RJ, et al. “Updating Estimates of Plasmodium Knowlesi Malaria Risk in Response to Changing Land Use Patterns across Southeast Asia.” PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, vol. 18, no. 1, 2024, pp. e0011570–e0011570.

Chicago Style

Tobin, RJ, LE Harrison, MK Tully, et al. 2024. “Updating Estimates of Plasmodium Knowlesi Malaria Risk in Response to Changing Land Use Patterns across Southeast Asia.” PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases 18 (1): e0011570–e0011570.
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