The source of economic shocks matters for their political outcomes

Journal article

Do different economic shocks favor different types of political leadership? Using a survey experiment conducted on 3500 American respondents, we offer causal evidence for an unexpected relation between different types of economic shocks and a demand for a radical political response. First, we show that individuals believe politicians have a role in preventing layoffs due to both offshoring and automation, compared to run-of-the-mill bankruptcies. Second, we find strong evidence that economic shocks due to offshoring lead to greater demands for leaders who display authoritarian traits, with no equivalent effect for layoffs due to automation. When presented with news of an offshoring event, respondents favor leaders who claim to be more willing to flout the rule of law, to implement divisive policies, and to employ force. By contrast, traits commonly associated with populism, such as siding with “the people” or preferring political outsiders, see no association with either offshoring or automation shocks. Our findings support the view that some economic shocks provide a greater opportunity for political candidates willing to turn to radical political solutions.

Authors: Baccini, L; Ciobanu, C; Pelc, K

• Publication status: Published
• Peer review status: Peer reviewed
• Publisher: SAGE Publications
• Journal: Research & Politics
• Volume: 12
• Issue: 3
• Article number: 20531680251379914
• Publication date: 2025-09-22
• Acceptance date: 2025-08-15
• DOI: 10.1177/20531680251379914
• EISSN: 2053-1680
• ISSN: 2053-1680
• Language: English
• Keywords: populism; offshoring; United States; authoritarianism; Automation