Major volcanic eruptions episodically disrupted the continuity of polar warming through aerosol forcing

Journal article

The polar regions are warming rapidly, exceeding the global average due to greenhouse gas emissionsfrom human activities. Using CMIP6 simulations, HadCRUT5 data, and MERRA-2 aerosol records, thisstudy shows that major 20th-century volcanic eruptions, Agung (1963), El Chicho´n (1982), and Pinatubo(1991) temporarily offset polar warming through sulfate-induced cooling. The Agung eruption suppressedArctic surface air temperature anomalies for approximately 4-5 years (1964–1968), El Chicho´n for asimilar duration (1983–1987), and Pinatubo for about 4-5 years (1992–1996), demonstrating a consistentmulti-year cooling response following each event.Without these eruptions, Arctic surface air temperatureanomalies would have increased by up to 0.5 °C, whereas volcanic activity caused short-term coolingranging from –0.07 °C to –0.4 °C. Arctic minimum temperatures (Tmin) are rising faster than maximumtemperatures (Tmax), indicating asymmetric warming. In contrast, Antarctic responses were weaker,moderated by oceanic and atmospheric dynamics. Collectively, these eruptions produced episodic multi-year cooling that temporarily interrupted the ongoing Arctic warming trajectory, with warming resumingas volcanic aerosol forcing diminished. Spatial patterns reveal pronounced warming in the central Arctic,Greenland, and Siberia in the absence of volcanic forcing, highlighting the role of eruptions in modulating polar warming and providing insights relevant to future geoengineering considerations.

Authors: Grainger, D; Swain, B; Osprey, S; Song, R; Vountas, M

• Publication status: Accepted
• Peer review status: Peer reviewed
• Publisher: Springer Nature
• Journal: npj Clean Air More from this journal
• Acceptance date: 2026-10-01
• EISSN: 3059-2240
• Language: English
• Keywords: volcanic aerosol; arctic warming