Journal article
COVID-19 transmission dynamics underlying epidemic waves in Kenya
- Abstract:
- Policy decisions on COVID-19 interventions should be informed by a local, regional and national understanding of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission. Epidemic waves may result when restrictions are lifted or poorly adhered to, variants with new phenotypic properties successfully invade, or infection spreads to susceptible subpopulations. Three COVID-19 epidemic waves have been observed in Kenya. Using a mechanistic mathematical model, we explain the first two distinct waves by differences in contact rates in high and low social-economic groups, and the third wave by the introduction of higher-transmissibility variants. Reopening schools led to a minor increase in transmission between the second and third waves. Socioeconomic and urban–rural population structure are critical determinants of viral transmission in Kenya.
- Publication status:
- Published
- Peer review status:
- Peer reviewed
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(Preview, Version of record, pdf, 1.1MB, Terms of use)
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- Publisher copy:
- 10.1126/science.abk0414
Authors
- Publisher:
- American Association for the Advancement of Science
- Journal:
- Science More from this journal
- Volume:
- 374
- Issue:
- 6570
- Pages:
- 989-994
- Publication date:
- 2021-11-01
- Acceptance date:
- 2021-10-04
- DOI:
- EISSN:
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1095-9203
- ISSN:
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0036-8075
- Pmid:
-
34618602
- Language:
-
English
- Keywords:
- Pubs id:
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1200156
- Local pid:
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pubs:1200156
- Deposit date:
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2022-03-16
- ARK identifier:
Terms of use
- Copyright holder:
- Brand et al.
- Copyright date:
- 2021
- Rights statement:
- ©2021 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. Distributed under a Creative Commons Attribution License 4.0 (CC BY). https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution license, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
- Licence:
- CC Attribution (CC BY)
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