Toward improved understanding and attribution of large-scale circulation changes and associated extremes: challenges and opportunities

Journal article

In July 2025, two ongoing World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) initiatives held a joint science meeting in Busan, South Korea: the Lighthouse Activity on Explaining and Predicting Earth System Change (EPESC) and Large Ensembles for Attribution of Dynamically-driven ExtRemes (LEADER), an activity of the Core Project Atmospheric Processes And their Role in Climate (APARC). The EPESC (Findell et al. 2023) and LEADER communities are working together to improve understanding and attribution of dynamical drivers of extreme Earth system events, how those drivers are changing in a warming climate, and how this understanding can be leveraged to improve seasonal-to-decadal prediction. Among the in-person participants (Fig. 1) were 29 early career scientists (ECSs).

Authors: Findell, KL; Garfinkel, C; Lee, J-Y; Behrens, E; Borchert, L

• Publication status: Published
• Peer review status: Peer reviewed
• Publisher: American Meteorological Society
• Journal: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
• Volume: 107
• Issue: 4
• Pages: E778-E787
• Publication date: 2026-04-01
• Acceptance date: 2026-01-14
• DOI: 10.1175/bams-d-26-0009.1
• EISSN: 1520-0477
• ISSN: 0003-0007
• Language: English
• Keywords: atmosphere-ocean interaction; atmospheric circulation; ocean circulation; climate attribution; climate models; interdecadal variability