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Detecting Presymptomatic Infection Is Necessary to Forecast Major Epidemics in the Earliest Stages of Infectious Disease Outbreaks

Abstract:

We assess how presymptomatic infection affects predictability of infectious disease epidemics. We focus on whether or not a major outbreak (i.e. an epidemic that will go on to infect a large number of individuals) can be predicted reliably soon after initial cases of disease have appeared within a population. For emerging epidemics, significant time and effort is spent recording symptomatic cases. Scientific attention has often focuse...

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Publication status:
Published
Peer review status:
Peer reviewed
Version:
Publisher version

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Publisher copy:
10.1371/journal.pcbi.1004836

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Institution:
University of Oxford
Department:
Oxford, MPLS, Zoology
Role:
Author
Publisher:
Public Library of Science Publisher's website
Journal:
PLoS Computational Biology Journal website
Volume:
12
Issue:
4
Pages:
Article: e1004836
DOI:
ISSN:
1553-7358
URN:
uuid:754a1c04-0391-480b-be94-b4caa846364a
Source identifiers:
614291
Local pid:
pubs:614291

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