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Improving forecasting accuracy at the OBR: submission to the treasury committee enquiry ‘The OBR: 15 years on’

Abstract:: The OBR has made systematic large forecast errors since 2010. Our approach corrects large forecast errors occurring after unexpected shifts. It can be implemented rapidly even if updating a forecasting system is difficult. Illustrated here by improved forecasting of UK productivity relative to OBR.

Publication status:: Published

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APA Style

Castle, J. L., Hendry, D. F., & Martinez, A. B. (2026). Improving forecasting accuracy at the OBR: submission to the treasury committee enquiry ‘The OBR: 15 years on’ . University of Oxford.

MLA Style

Castle, JL, et al. Improving Forecasting Accuracy at the OBR: Submission to the Treasury Committee Enquiry ‘The OBR: 15 Years on’ . University of Oxford, 2026.

Chicago Style

Castle, JL, DF Hendry, and AB Martinez. 2026. Improving Forecasting Accuracy at the OBR: Submission to the Treasury Committee Enquiry ‘The OBR: 15 Years on’ . University of Oxford.
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Authors

+ Castle, JL More by this author

Institution:: University of Oxford
Division:: SSD
Department:: Economics
Oxford college:: Magdalen College
Role:: Author
ORCID:: 0000-0001-9325-8024

+ Hendry, DF More by this author

Institution:: University of Oxford
Oxford college:: Nuffield College
Role:: Author

+ Martinez, AB More by this author

Institution:: University of Oxford
Division:: SSD
Department:: Economics
Role:: Author

Publisher:: University of Oxford
Place of publication:: Oxford, UK

Language:: English
Pubs id:: 2387214
Local pid:: pubs:2387214
Deposit date:: 2026-03-09
ARK identifier:: ark:/29072/ora_74924aa8c8634109bb0461b2d5781047

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