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Oceanic stochastic parametrizations in a seasonal forecast system

Abstract:

Stochastic parametrization provides a methodology for representing model uncertainty in ensemble forecasts. Here we study the impact of three existing stochastic parametrizations in the ocean component of a coupled model, on forecast reliability over seasonal timescales. The relative impacts of these schemes upon the ocean mean state and ensemble spread are analyzed. The oceanic variability induced by the atmospheric forcing of the coupled system is, in most regions, the major source of ensem...

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Publication status:
Published
Peer review status:
Peer reviewed
Version:
Publisher's version

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Publisher copy:
10.1175/MWR-D-15-0245.1

Authors


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Institution:
University of Oxford
Department:
Oxford, MPLS, Physics, Atmos Ocean and Planet Physics
More by this author
Institution:
University of Oxford
Department:
Oxford, MPLS, Physics, Atmos Ocean and Planet Physics
More by this author
Institution:
University of Oxford
Department:
Oxford, MPLS, Physics, Atmos Ocean and Planet Physics
More by this author
Institution:
University of Oxford
Department:
Oxford, MPLS, Physics, Atmos Ocean and Planet Physics
More by this author
Institution:
University of Oxford
Department:
Oxford, MPLS, Physics, Atmos Ocean and Planet Physics
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Funding agency for:
Weisheimer, A
Publisher:
American Meteorological Society Publisher's website
Journal:
Monthly Weather Review Journal website
Volume:
144
Issue:
5
Pages:
1867-1875
Publication date:
2016-04-19
DOI:
EISSN:
1520-0493
ISSN:
0027-0644
URN:
uuid:6d159eef-a26a-47c3-95c6-bd4c2c5c954a
Source identifiers:
599071
Local pid:
pubs:599071

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